Population Trends
New census data is in, and it’s good news for North Carolina: the Old North State was the third-fastest growing state from 2024 to 2025. Here’s what that means as far as real estate is concerned.
Even more glaring is that, according to this report, “population growth in the United States has slowed significantly with an increase of only 1.8 million, or .5%,” meaning that Tar Heels are outperforming a slowed population — but why?
The reasoning for the slowed population is given, with the press release attributing it to a historic decline in net international migration. But that still doesn’t explain the arrival of so many out-of-staters.
Our neighbors to the south landed the number one spot for highest percentage growth, adding 1.5% new South Carolinians to the mix over the same time period. Idaho added 1.4%, and then there’s North Carolina with 1.3%.
Numerically, we find ourselves in the third spot as well, with 145,907 new Tar Heel residents in the year covered, behind Florida’s 196,680 and the whopping 391,243 who moved to Texas. Overall population lands us at number nine with our 11,197,968 residents.
Migration Matters
According to this article from Realtor.com, New York, Hawaii, Alaska, and California had the most net losses from migration patterns.
What’s causing that exodus and influx of new North Carolina residents? Well, also according to Realtor.com, New York, California, and Hawaii got an F on their homebuilding and affordability report card, while Alaska earned itself a C-.
For comparison, North Carolina got a B+ while South Carolina got an A.
That pattern of movement is also summed up well by their economist, Jiayi Xu: “States seeing the strongest net growth tend to score better on measures of affordability and homebuilding activity, suggesting that a healthier balance between prices, incomes, and new construction is attracting newcomers and helping existing residents stay.”
Real Estate Impact
The obvious big impact is the demand for housing will go up (and it already has). Since we’re in a lucrative spot in the Sandhills, with plenty of nearby things to attract new residents, we might see even more drastic effects.
For sellers, this is a good thing — more competition from buyers can lead to a bidding war and higher prices. But for those same buyers, that’s not a good thing.
The next progression is to build more houses, especially custom-built homes. That’s always a good approach, but with the increased demand, we could see higher land prices. New construction is helping close the inventory gap between supply and demand, but with an influx of new residents, that gap might not get closed quickly.
Bottom Line
While this is data-driven, it is still speculative. We cannot 100% accurately forecast exactly what will happen. Several factors go into all of this, and even the best approaches can never accurately tell the future — regardless of who the fortune-teller is.
What we can do, though, is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If the demand is going to outweigh the supply, the best time to buy a house was yesterday, and the second-best time is now. There won’t magically be a bunch of new houses that pop up for sale tomorrow.
This isn’t a cause for panic, though — the market will correct course, but there is no accurate way of telling when that will be.
While this can lead to a seller’s market (and almost surely will), that doesn’t mean houses can’t be had, especially for fair prices.
